In the first quarter of 2025, China's foreign trade showed steady performance, with the total goods trade volume increasing by 1.3 percent year-on-year to 10.3 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion), according to the General Administration of Customs.

 

Exports rose 6.9 percent to 6.13 trillion yuan, while imports declined 6 percent to 4.17 trillion yuan year-on-year. Although imports fell in the first three months of this year, the growth rate of the overall import and export value has rebounded — it fell 2.2 percent in January, remained unchanged in February and grew by 6 percent in March.

 

The data indicate that the country has maintained its position as the world's second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, and its share in global imports has also steadily increased from 7.9 percent to 10.5 percent.

 

The growth rate of China's trade with the countries and regions taking part in the construction of the Belt and Road was 2.2 percent in the first quarter year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the overall average. China's trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations hit 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1 percent year-on-year.

 

In the first quarter, the imports and exports of mechanical and electrical products, particularly household appliances, laptops, electronic components as well as automatic data processing equipment parts, ships and marine engineering equipment, amounted to 5.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7 percent, making them key drivers of the overall growth of the country's foreign trade.

 

It is worth noting that foreign-invested enterprises still play an important role in China's foreign trade. In the first quarter, the import and export value of foreign-invested enterprises in China was 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4 percent year-on-year, accounting for 29 percent of the total and achieving growth for four consecutive quarters.

 

In the first quarter of this year, there were more than 67,000 foreign-invested enterprises involved in imports and exports, a record high in the same period over the past three years. They accounted for more than 40 percent of China's exports of high-tech products such as electronic information products, biomedicine and medical instruments.

 

As the restrictions on foreign investment access in China's manufacturing industry have been completely lifted, the green, digital and intelligent transformation of relevant industries, and the market-oriented, legal and international first-class business environment of China are both conducive to helping foreign-invested enterprises fully display their advantages in China and gain an advantage in global competition.

 

Private enterprises have always been the main force of China's foreign trade, and their import and export value in the first quarter was 5.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8 percent year-on-year, accounting for 56.8 percent of China's foreign trade, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

 

Private enterprises have become an important force fueling China's innovation-driven growth, promoting the high-end, intelligent and green transformation of the manufacturing sector. They are indispensable to China's new energy products continuing to play an important role in the global green transformation. In the first quarter, China's exports of wind turbines, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles increased by 43.2 percent, 18.8 percent and 8.2 percent year-on-year respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the majority of export companies have quickly responded to the diversified demands of the global market. Some traditional industries have launched customized products to adapt to the fast-changing market.

 

At present, China's exports are undoubtedly facing a complex and severe external situation, as the US administration's abuse of tariffs is inevitably having a negative impact on global trade, including that of China. But the country has resolutely implemented necessary countermeasures not only to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, but also to defend international trade rules and international fairness and justice.

 

China will unswervingly promote high-level opening-up to the outside world and carry out mutually beneficial and win-win economic and trade cooperation with all countries.

 

In the process, China will never stop building a diversified market and deepening cooperation with all parties in the industry and supply chains, which will not only facilitate the development of the other party, but also enhance the resilience of the Chinese economy. China's huge domestic market, complete industrial system, efficient policymaking and effective execution system will continuously serve as stabilizers of the situation, helping the country counter external changes and risks with domestic stability and certainty.

China has implemented brand new tariffs of 84% on the importation of all US products, a measure that caused stock markets to decline further, heightening anxieties of further intensification in Donald Trump’s trade conflict.

 

The Chinese finance ministry announced on Wednesday that it would enforce 84% tariffs on US goods starting Thursday, an increase from the previously stated 34%.

 

This decision followed shortly after new tariffs on imports to the United States from multiple economies surged, with tariffs placed on Chinese commodities since Trump's return to the White House hitting an astounding 104%.

 

China’s response caused stock markets, which had tumbled on Wednesday, to fall even more with key indices down in the UK, Germany, France, and Spain. The FTSE 100 in London dropped by 3.5%, Germany's Dax index fell by 3.8%, France’s Cac 40 decreased by 3.9%, and Spain's Ibex dipped by 3.2%.

 

Prior to the announcement of the 84% tariffs, the Chinese government stated it was not looking to engage in a trade conflict, but “will never stand by and let the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be harmed and stripped.”

 

The global economy has been disturbed since broad US tariffs of 10% went into effect over the weekend, causing significant market sell-offs globally and inciting worries of a recession.

 

The declines in Europe followed another volatile day on several Asian markets. Japan’s Nikkei index closed almost 4% down, while Taiwan’s leading stock index was 5.8% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recovered some earlier losses to end 0.4% lower, and South Korea’s Kospi 200 index dropped by 1.8%.

 

Meanwhile, China’s stock markets rose, seemingly weathering the challenges after government measures. The SSE composite index in Shanghai closed 1.1% higher, while the Shenzhen SE composite increased by 2.2%.

 

Oil prices dropped for a fifth consecutive day on Wednesday, reaching the lowest level in four years, since February 2021, due to concerns that a global trade conflict would lessen demand and impact economic growth negatively. Brent crude oil futures prices declined to as low as $58.47.

China has responded forcefully to Donald Trump’s “bullying” tariffs, raising fears that the intensifying trade war might cause a global recession and triggering fresh chaos in the financial markets.

 

Beijing retaliated on Friday with 34% additional punitive tariffs on all U.S. imports, mirroring the U.S. decision and worsening a sell-off in global stock markets.

 

Since Trump’s Rose Garden announcement on Wednesday evening, about $5 trillion (£4 trillion) in value has been lost from global stock markets, analysts calculated.

 

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index of leading shares fell more than 7% from Monday, marking its worst trading week since late February 2020, when concern over the Covid-19 pandemic was overwhelming the markets.

 

The significant escalation in trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world has heightened concerns among investors regarding risks to global growth.

 

The chair of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, warned that the trade war would lead to “higher inflation and slower growth,” as Jerome Powell resisted Trump's calls to lower interest rates.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned that the escalating trade war could impact global economic growth. The tariffs “pose a significant risk to the global outlook amid sluggish growth,” according to IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

 

China’s retaliation came after Trump imposed 34% tariffs on Chinese goods, which were already subject to a 20% levy, increasing the total levy to 54%. He also imposed substantial tariffs on neighboring Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, through which billions of dollars of Chinese exports are processed en route to the U.S.

 

Trump responded on his social media platform Truth Social on Friday, stating: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!”

 

The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said ministers would continue discussions with Washington, hoping that the 10% levy on UK exports could be removed. The UK offers a series of concessions, including reducing the £1 billion-a-year digital services tax for some of the largest tech firms.

 

“We are committed to doing everything possible to secure the best deal for British industry, working closely with them to protect prosperity and jobs here in the UK,” she stated.

 

Financial markets are anticipating an additional three interest rate cuts from the Bank of England by the year's end, weighing the risks of slower growth, as some analysts caution that a slowdown may compel Reeves to increase taxes in her autumn budget.

 

“Given her adherence to fiscal rules, the central expectation must be that if she remains committed, significant tax increases in the autumn are likely,” expressed Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the banking watchdog created after the subprime mortgage meltdown and the 2008 global financial crisis, has been thrown into chaos as the Trump administration works to drastically limit its operations.

 

Last month, workers at the CFPB were told to stop working, effectively shutting down the agency, though that order has since been challenged by a federal judge.

 

Although the CFPB, which is tasked with ensuring banks, lenders and other financial companies play fair with consumers, is severely weakened, Americans shouldn’t be too worried about a repeat of the subprime mortgage crisis that led to its creation, experts told CNN. Lenders and banks are currently more stringently regulated than they were in the years leading up to the crisis, and Americans who borrow money are more protected.

 

Still, with the hobbling of an agency that often acts as a safety net for consumers, Americans may need to become their own consumer advocates when dealing with lenders of all types.

 

“The CFPB’s mission is to protect individuals. After the financial crisis, we saw there were a lot of individuals who had been taken advantage of,” said John Griffin, a finance professor at The University of Texas at Austin who has argued that rampant fraud played a role in the financial crisis. “But I don’t think the CFPB would be able to stop another financial crisis.”

 

The agency, which was a brainchild of Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren when she was a Harvard Law professor, was created as part of Dodd-Frank, a 2010 federal law passed in an attempt to correct the financial vulnerabilities that contributed to the global financial crisis. The CFPB has since delivered $19.7 billion in consumer relief, with 195 million people eligible for that relief, according to the agency.

 

“Gutting consumer protections while simultaneously permitting financial firms to take on greater risk is a dangerous combination,” Warren said in a statement to CNN. “Working families cannot afford for policymakers to repeat the mistakes of the past.”

 

The CFPB did not respond to a request for comment on the impact of its recent changes.

 

A safer home loan market?

 

Buying a home is usually the biggest purchase Americans make in their lifetimes. Although it’s always been important to fully understand the terms of a loan when taking out a mortgage, that may take on even greater importance if the CFPB is diminished.

 

Still, the home loan market is safer now than it once was, said Ira Rheingold, executive director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.

 

“When Dodd-Frank passed, it included mortgage reform,” Rheingold said. “The types of loans that were being made that created the subprime crisis really can’t be made anymore, because they would be violating the law.”

 

The housing meltdown of 2008 occurred partly because banks and lenders gave out risky home loans to people who couldn’t afford them. Those mortgages were then bundled into complex financial products that collapsed when homeowners started defaulting on their loans.

 

The meltdown led to a crash in home prices and millions of foreclosures.

 

Home loans that required little-to-no proof of income were common before 2008, but today, such loans are rare, said Laurie Goodman, founder of the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute.

 

“Prior to the financial crisis, income wasn’t adequately documented, you sort of took the borrower’s word for it,” she said. “Today, a ‘no doc’ loan would be extremely foreign.”

 

Housing market protections codified into law in the years after the financial crisis also include stronger lending standards and clearer disclosures for loan holders.

 

Here’s what you should know

 

However, the defanging of the CFPB would still strip away vital protections for consumers, said Griffin.

 

“Gutting an organization like the CFPB does hurt investors on smaller financial transactions where they can get taken advantage of,” he said. “The CFPB has played a role to provide additional scrutiny to go after unjust fees or unjust financial transactions.”

 

When borrowing money for a home, Americans should pay close attention to the terms of the loan, ensuring there are no hidden fees or relationships. At a time when mortgage rates hover just under 7%, borrowers should shop around to multiple lenders to ensure the most favorable terms.

 

The agency protects consumers from more than just predatory mortgage loans, though. Its broad purpose is to protect from financial abuses in general, including those from credit card companies, auto loans and student loans.

 

Rheingold recommended that consumers continue to file complaints with the CFPB when they have issues with financial products or services. If the CFPB doesn’t take immediate action, your state’s attorney general or legal services programs may still file a lawsuit against a bad-behaving company if you raise the issue to them, he said.

 

Some fear that financial companies could grow increasingly emboldened to engage in predatory practices like hidden fees and unfair loan terms, though it’s hard to predict exactly what those abuses would be.

 

“Will we go back and make the exact same mistakes as we have in the past? We probably won’t. But we’ll make a different set of mistakes,” said Goodman.

Americans increased their spending last month after taking a breather in January, while inflation was a mixed bag, new Commerce Department data showed Friday.

 

As it stood in February, America’s economic foundation remained fairly solid. However, the latest data doesn’t include the elephant in the room: President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy.

 

Recently imposed tariffs on auto imports and a looming slew of other levies stand to ding America’s economic engine and drive prices higher, economists warn.

 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.5% in February from the year before, holding steady with what was seen in January, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, unchanged from January.

 

Economists expected that falling energy prices and stabilizing food prices would help keep the disinflationary trend at hand, and that was indeed the case: Energy prices fell 1.1% for the month while food prices eased just slightly to 1.5% from 1.6%.

 

Forecasts called for the PCE price index to be unchanged from January’s preliminary 2.5% rate.

 

However, one critical barometer — the core PCE index, which serves as a gauge of underlying inflation — came in slightly hotter than economists expected.

 

Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, the closely watched core PCE price index rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year before, accelerating from 2.7% in January.

 

Friday’s core PCE data “suggests that inflation still remains sticky, despite signs of softening in recent months,” Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer, Brave Eagle Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “While tariffs are likely to add a one-off shock to inflation, it remains very unclear on how long the tariffs will last, as it’s very possible that a future trade deal leads to reduced or even no tariffs.”

 

Consumer spending rebounded in February, rising 0.4% for the month. In January, spending was weaker than initially reported and fell by 0.3%.

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.

 

Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.

 

The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump.  But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.

 

"We've had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy," said Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics. "Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing."

 

"The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented,'' said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust.

 

The average GDP forecast for 2025 declined to 1.7% from 2.4%, a sharp markdown that ended consecutive increases in the three prior surveys dating back to September. GDP is forecast to bounced back to 2.1% in 2026, in line with prior forecasts.

 

"The risks to consumers' spending are skewed to the downside," said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. "Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP."

 

Most continue to believe the Fed will cut rates at least twice and won't hike rates, even if faced with persistently higher prices and weaker growth. Three-quarters forecast two or more quarter-point cuts this year. Part of the reason is that two-thirds believe that tariffs will result in one-time price hikes rather than a broader outbreak of inflation. But the policy uncertainty has created a wider range of views on the Fed than normal with 19% believing the Fed won't cut at all.

 

Still, higher tariffs and weaker growth are a dilemma for the Fed.

 

"Powell is really stuck here because of the tariff overhang," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer, Bleakley Financial Group. "If he gets more worried about growth because of them and cuts rates as unemployment rises but then Trump removes all the tariffs, he's jumped the gun."

 

More than 70% of respondents believe tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs and growth. 34% say tariffs will decrease US manufacturing with 22% saying they will result in no change. Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe tariffs will end up in greater manufacturing output. More than 70% believe the DOGE effort to reduce government employment is bad for growth and jobs but will be modestly deflationary.

 

"A global trade war, haphazard DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, aggressive immigrant deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push what was an exceptionally performing economy into recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Analytics.

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Tuesday, tracking gains on Wall Street, which ticked up after U.S. retail sales data appeared to ease recession concerns.

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index led gains in Asia, rising 2.29% in its last hour on the back of strong moves in tech giants like Baidu, which was up 12.11% as at 3.45 p.m. local time.

 

Meanwhile, mainland China's CSI 300 advanced 0.27% to end the day at 4,007.72.

 

Investors will be keeping a close watch on Japanese markets, as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5% when the meeting concludes on Wednesday.

 

The BOJ's two-day meeting coincides with the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the latter also expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

 

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 1.20% higher at 37,845.42, while the broader Topix index rose 1.29% to 2,783.56.

 

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index closed flat at 2,612.34 while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.27% to end at 745.54.

 

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 ended the day flat at 7,860.40, paring gains from earlier in the session.

 

India's benchmark Nifty 50 added 1.20%, while the BSE Sensex increased 1.07% as at 1.15 p.m. local time.

 

U.S. futures edged down, even after all three benchmarks made a comeback from a four-week decline exacerbated by falling consumer confidence and U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic tariff policy rollout.

 

The S&P 500 gained 0.64% to close at 5,675.12, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31% and ended at 17,808.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 353.44 points, or 0.85%, to end at 41,841.63.

 

The 30-stock index was bolstered by gains in Walmart and International Business Machines. All three of the major averages posted back-to-back gains.

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index traded more than 2% higher on Tuesday.

 

Many major Chinese companies are listed on the index, which is up 22.88% since the start of the year. The strong gains are led by tech giants.

 

The Hang Seng Tech Index was up 3.28% as at 2.43 p.m. local time. Top performers include Baidu which added 11.79%, NIO Inc was up 8.03% and Li Auto which rose 5.99%.

 

Swiss investment bank Julius Baer has downgraded its "long-standing constructive stance" on U.S. equities and is now looking out for opportunities in other markets.

 

"With U.S. equities in oversold territory and a short-term countertrend bounce likely, we see this as an opportunity to further diversify into non-U.S. markets in the coming weeks," Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy research at Julius Baer, wrote in a Tuesday note.

 

"Whether this divergence is sustainable hinges on whether the U.S. slowdown remains contained or escalates into a full-blown recession," he added.

 

For instance, Racheter expects the rotation into non-U.S. equities to persist in the case of a moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy. However, he said a recession in the world's largest economy is likely to trigger a broader bear market globally.

 

Racheter is playing the European market with Swiss equities — which offer a "combination of defensive quality and reasonable valuations" — and German mid-caps.

 

In Asia, he is overweight on Chinese equities "which are in a cyclical bull market" and Indian names which "provide long-term structural growth exposure."

 

Shares in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Nio rallied on Tuesday, rising 17.24% as at 11.57 a.m. local time.

 

This comes on the back of its partnership with Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology.

 

As part of this, the companies will build a battery swapping network for passenger vehicles and provide efficient recharging solutions for users. They are also seeking to unify industry technical standards, enhance capital and business collaboration, according to a Tuesday announcement.

 

Shares in CATL were flat after the announcement.— Amala Balakrishner

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index traded 2.27% higher at 11.15 a.m. local time.

 

Top performers include Baidu, which surged 9.94%, Alibaba Group Holdings, which rose 5.31%, and Tencent Music Entertainment Group which was up 5.93%.

 

The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF shows the day's moves:

 

Spot gold appreciated 0.39% hit a fresh record high of $3,013.35 per ounce on Tuesday morning Singapore time.

 

The price of the precious metal surged ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting that concludes Wednesday stateside.

 

Market watchers expect the U.S. central bank to hold interest rates in March and cut in June.

 

Gold does not accrue interest and is seen as a safe haven asset, so its price tends to rise when rates fall and the economic environment is uncertain.

 

Shares in tech giant Baidu surged as much as 9.94% in early trade on Tuesday, after it launched two new artificial intelligence models.

 

The launches include a reasoning-focused model that the company said rivals DeepSeek's model.

 

Shares in Chinese automaker BYD rose as much as 8.85% shortly after the open, following its announcement of a new technology that allows electric cars to be charged at a much faster rate.

 

Shares in Japanese insurer Tokio Marine Holdings rose as much as 5.03% on Tuesday, extending its gains for the fifth-straight trading session.

 

Australia's central bank is more cautious than the market about further policy easing, following its interest rate cut last month, according to Reuters.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% in February — its first easing since November 2020.

 

"The February decision reflected a judgement by the board that it was the right time to take some restrictiveness away, but the board were more cautious than the market about prospects for further easing," the central bank's Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said Tuesday.

 

Hunter — who also heads the RBA's economics unit — said she was echoing recent comments by the central bank Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.

 

Australia's economy expanded 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, accelerating for the first time since September 2023.

 

The GDP growth surpassed the 1.2% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, as well as the 1.1% climb forecast by the RBA.

 

While stocks were on pace to post another positive session on Monday following their sell-off over the past few weeks, more volatility may be coming down the pike, according to Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Asset Management.

 

"The surprising thing and the challenge for the market has been the fluctuation of tariffs with our biggest trading partners," the senior investment strategist said. "Volatility is probably in the cards for at least the next couple of weeks and could extend beyond that depending upon what the back-and-forth looks like when it comes to tariffs."

 

The strategist's remarks come as President Trump's temporary tariff exemptions for some goods imported from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2.

 

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday that there will be economic uncertainty around tariffs for another few weeks.

 

"Absolutely, between now and April 2, there'll be some uncertainty," Hassett said on "Squawk Box," referring to the scheduled date for the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariff plans to be revealed.

 

Hassett did say that there should be "absolute clarity" about the administration's goals once the reciprocal tariffs are worked out.

 

European markets traded in positive territory on Tuesday, with investor focus turning to the German government as it sets out to vote on historic debt reforms.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was around 0.7% higher on Tuesday morning, with most sectors and all major bourses in positive territory.

 

Frankfurt's DAX index, home to Germany's biggest companies, added 1.1% at 10:37 a.m. London time.

 

Rheinmetall, Bayer and Continental rose to the top of the DAX after gaining 3.6%, 3.5% and 3.1% respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the MDAX index, which houses 50 German mid-cap firms, jumped 2% higher on Tuesday morning. Its top movers included Thyssenkrupp, up 6.3%, and Puma, which was 4% higher.

 

German shares will be closely watched Tuesday as lawmakers in Berlin vote on reforms to the country's so-called debt brake rule to enable a rise in public borrowing in order to fund a hike in defense spending.

 

The motion, which requires a change to the German Constitution, needs backing from two-thirds of the lawmakers elected to the country's parliament.

 

Traders will also be keeping an eye on talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in which they're expected to discuss, over the phone, a potential 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine and Russia's conditions for agreeing to a pause in the war.

 

Asia-Pacific markets rose overnight, tracking gains on Wall Street, which ticked up after U.S. retail sales data appeared to ease recession concerns. U.S. stock futures edged down Monday night.

 

The British pound hit a four-month high on Tuesday morning, breaching $1.3 at 10 a.m. in London, before retreating.

 

The British pound last reached $1.3 in September, last year. It was down less than a percentage point against the greenback at 12:25 p.m., at $1.29.

 

The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting on Thursday, as it deals with the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and economic uncertainty.

 

The U.K.'s Office for Budget Responsibility is also set to publish its economic forecast on March 26, during which Chancellor Rachel Reeves will make her Spring Statement on the economy.

 

Shares of Novo Nordisk rose 3.7% after the famed obesity drug maker had its membership of a U.K. pharmaceutical industry body restored following a two-year suspension for breaching a national drugmakers practice code.

 

The Danish pharmaceutical firm was suspended by the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) in 2023 for not fully explaining its involvement in training on obesity drugs that it shared with pharmacists on LinkedIn.

 

The ABPI said in a statement Monday that it was confident the company has made "clear, significant, and sustained improvements" to ensure it adheres to its standards and code of practice.

 

The yield on German 10-year government bonds — known as bunds — could hit 4% within three years, BNP Paribas said on Tuesday.

 

German lawmakers are set to vote on reforming the country's so-called debt brake rule on Tuesday to permit additional national spending on defense.

 

According to news agency Reuters, BNP Paribas's head of rates, FX and strategy, Sam Lynton-Brown, said in a media call that 10-year bund yields would likely trade between 2.5% and 3% in the near term, then rise with time as Germany issues more bonds to fund additional defense spending.

 

The yield on 10-year bunds was trading at 2.845% on Tuesday morning, after gaining 4 basis points by 10:19 a.m. London time. A rise of 4% would put the 10-year yield at its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

 

The euro was 0.2% higher against the U.S. dollar at 9:30 a.m. in London, trading at around $1.0942.

 

It put the European currency on track for its third consecutive day of gains against the greenback.

 

Shares of British technology services firm Computacenter surged to the top of the Stoxx 600 on Tuesday, gaining 11.1% by 9:16 a.m. in London.

 

It came after the company reported an 11.5% year-on-year drop in annual operating profit, but noted the second half of 2024 had seen "improved momentum." The company cited a record year in the North American market, but said that softer U.K. market conditions and increased company-wide investment had also influenced its full-year earnings.

 

The firm said it expects to make progress in 2025, after beginning the year "with a committed product order backlog which is significantly ahead of our position in December 2023."

 

Frankfurt's DAX index, home to Germany's biggest companies, had gained 0.9% by 8:53 a.m. in London.

 

Continental, Infineon and BMW rose to the top of the DAX after gaining 3.6%, 3% and 2.9%, respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the MDAX index, which houses 50 German mid-cap firms, jumped 1.7% higher on Tuesday morning. Its top movers included Thyssenkrupp, up 7%, Hensoldt, which gained 5.9%, and Delivery Hero, which was 4.8% higher.

 

The rally came as German lawmakers prepare for a crucial vote on whether to reform the country's so-called debt brake system to allow more public borrowing and hike defense spending.

 

Shares of Volkswagen were 1.2% higher after the open on Tuesday.

 

That came after Audi, one of the autos group's subsidiaries, said Monday it would cut 7,500 jobs in Germany.

 

The move brings the total number of layoffs planned across the Volkswagen Group to almost 48,000, according to news agency Reuters.

 

In its latest scenario analysis, the Swiss National Bank considered a "substantial" loss potential for Swiss banking giant UBS, which completed its takeover of embattled domestic rival Credit Suisse in June 2023 after the latter's tumultuous collapse.

 

Since then, Swiss regulators have raised concerns over UBS reaching "too big to fail" status and the risks that its potential downfall at any point could pose to the national economy.

 

"Integration costs and expected losses associated with the winding down of Credit Suisse's legacy positions are currently impairing UBS's loss-absorbing capacity," the SNB said in its annual 2024 report out on Tuesday, stressing this is a "natural consequence of integrating and de-risking a bank with lower financial strength. At the same time, the planned wind-down of legacy positions should reduce UBS's risk exposures and associated costs in the future."

 

The Swiss lender further noted that UBS' parent bank, UBS AG, has "current weaknesses in the capital backing of its participations in subsidiaries" but an overall stronger capital position than did Credit Suisse.

 

Nevertheless, "weaknesses in the current capital regime need to be addressed," according to the SNB.

 

Questions have risen as to whether UBS will face increases in its capital requirements under new Swiss banking regulations that are being reformed.

 

European markets are expected to open higher on Tuesday.

 

The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 18 points higher at 8,696, Germany's DAX up 90 points at 23,207, France's CAC 21 points higher at 8,091 and Italy's FTSE MIB 101 points higher at 39,098, according to data from IG.

 

Earnings come from Travis Perkins and Eni, while data releases include the ZEW economic sentiment indexes for Germany and Europe.

Friday saw declines in Asia-Pacific markets as U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the imposition of tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, which would take effect the following week.

 

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell by 1.16%, concluding the day at 8,172.4.

 

The Nikkei 225 in Japan dropped by 2.88% to 37,155.5, while the Topix decreased by 1.98% to 2,682.09. South Korea's Kospi saw a reduction of 3.39% to 2,532.78, and the Kosdaq, focusing on smaller firms, declined by 3.49% to conclude at 743.96.

 

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong decreased by 3.55%, and China’s CSI 300 index fell by 1.97%, closing at 3,890.05.

 

Stocks in India also slipped, with the Nifty 50 index down by 0.99%.

 

The value of Bitcoin declined by 1.79% to $82,811.12, reflecting nearly a 25% drop since its record high in January.

 

On Thursday, Trump announced the impending enforcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, following a month-long deferment. He noted that these nations had not sufficiently reduced drug trafficking across their borders.

 

Moreover, Trump indicated that China would also face an additional 10% U.S. tariff on products starting the same day, on top of the existing 10% tariffs.

 

In the U.S. overnight, the three major stock indexes closed in negative territory. The S&P 500 ended the day with a 1.59% decline at 5,861.57. This broad market index recorded losses for both the week and the month. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 2.78%, finishing at 18,544.42, impacted by Nvidia’s 8.5% drop.

 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 193.62 points, equating to a drop of 0.45%, closing at 43,239.50.

 

Bitcoin's downturn intensified on Friday, marking its lowest level in over three months, erasing gains seen after Donald Trump’s presidential election win.

 

Trading midday in Asia had Bitcoin valued at approximately $79,800, down by 5.25% for the day and approximately 25% from its peak in mid-December.

 

Bitcoin saw a price spike post Trump's November victory where he positioned himself as friendly to cryptocurrency during his campaign.

 

Asian currencies weakened as the U.S. dollar strengthened following President Trump’s confirmation about upcoming tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

 

The dollar index — appraises the U.S. dollar’s strength against major international currencies — climbed 0.12% to 107.36 amid investors seeking more secure options due to tariff-related uncertainties.

 

Against the dollar, the Indonesian rupiah declined by 0.78%, hitting its weakest point since April 2020.

 

Following Nvidia's removal from the $3 trillion market cap status, Asian semiconductor shares experienced reductions.

 

Advantest, a semiconductor testing equipment supplier, dropped nearly 9%, and Tokyo Electron shares fell by 5.1%. Renesas Electronics and Lasertec recorded downturns of 4.43% and 7.19%, respectively.

 

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company saw a decrease of 1.89%.

 

Japan observed a robust 3.9% increase in retail sales year-on-year in January, marking the fastest growth rate in almost a year. This surpassed the revised 3.5% increase in December but slightly missed economists’ expectations of 4% as surveyed by Reuters.

 

Tokyo posted a February headline inflation rate of 2.9% year-on-year, down from January’s 3.4%.

 

Core inflation, which excludes fresh food prices, was at 2.2%, slightly beneath the 2.3% forecasted by Reuters. Tokyo’s inflation trends are often seen as indicators of broader national patterns.

 

President Donald Trump communicated via Truth Social that the postponed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are slated to start on March 4, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

 

Trump stated in his post that the tariff implementations are partly due to fentanyl entering the U.S. from these international borders.

 

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Trump-appointed leadership plans to fire nearly all its 1,700 employees while "winding down" the agency, according to testimony from employees.

 

In a trove of statements released late Thursday, federal employees said that the mass layoff was discussed in meetings they attended this month with senior CFPB leaders and members of Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency.

 

"My team was directed to assist with terminating the vast majority of CFPB employees as quickly as possible," said an employee identified as Alex Doe, a pseudonym used out of fear of retaliation.

 

Doe said the plan from CFPB leaders and DOGE was to cut the bureau's workforce in three phases. It would first eliminate probationary and term employees, then carry out a wave of about 1,200 layoffs, leaving a skeleton crew of a few hundred workers.

 

"Finally, the Bureau would 'reduce altogether' within 60-90 days by terminating most of its remaining staff," Doe said.

 

The workers' testimony comes at a crucial time for the CFPB, the agency created to protect consumers after the 2008 financial crisis caused by irresponsible lending. Since DOGE operatives first arrived at the CFPB this month, the bureau has shuttered its Washington headquarters, initiated the first round of layoffs and told those who remain to stop nearly all work.

 

The department has also reversed course on several cases where it accused financial firms including Capital One of ripping off customers, dismissing at least four cases Thursday involving billions of dollars in alleged consumer harm.

 

The filings containing the employee statements were made in the case started by a CFPB union, which led to a judge suspending acting Director Russell Vought's moves to shutter the bureau. After the CFPB fired about 200 probationary and term employees, the agency's actions were put on hold until a March 3 hearing.

 

The documents show an apparent disconnect between some of the external messaging from Vought and the behind-the-scenes activity at the bureau.

 

In a motion filed Monday in the case, Vought pushed back against the idea that he planned to eliminate the CFPB.

 

"The predicate to running a 'more streamlined and efficient bureau' is that there will continue to be a CFPB," he wrote.

 

But the Trump administration's plan was to take the CFPB down to the barest minimum staffing required under law: Just five CFPB employees would remain, either in a stand-alone office or folded into another regulatory body, the workers testified.

 

In meetings between Feb. 18 and Feb. 25, "staff were told by Senior Executives that the CFPB would be eliminated except for the five statutorily mandated positions," said another current CFPB employee, this one identified as Drew Doe.

 

"One Senior Executive said that CFPB will become a 'room at Treasury, White House, or Federal Reserve with five men and a phone in it,'" Doe said.

 

Another CFPB employee said that he or she attended a Feb. 13 meeting in which the bureau's chief operating officer, Adam Martinez, stated that the agency was in "wind-down mode."

 

The CFPB employees said that, if directed to by the court, they would provide their names and titles under seal.

 

The bureau has long been a target of Republicans and financial institutions, who have called it a rogue agency that exceeded its legal authority in punishing companies. More recently, Musk has taken up the cause; he posted on his X platform, "RIP CFPB," earlier this month just as his DOGE operatives began their work.

 

In several instances in the testimony, senior CFPB staff appeared to defer to DOGE employees for critical matters.

 

For instance, DOGE worker Jordan Wick "specifically stated" that Musk's ad hoc group wanted a massive round of layoffs by Feb. 14.

 

"The Bureau intended to comply and fire the vast majority of remaining employees on February 14th," Alex Doe said. "The only reason it did not do so is because of this Court's order."

 

In other instances, DOGE workers asked CFPB staff about how deeply they could cut operations while adhering to statutory requirements in areas like consumer response, per testimony from CFPB worker Matthew Pfaff.

 

Despite gaining full access to CFPB systems and data on Feb. 7, the DOGE employees haven't yet completed the cybersecurity and privacy training required by the agency, the employees testified.

 

While Musk and Vought have openly advocated for the termination of the CFPB, only Congress can truly shutter the agency, which was created after lawmakers passed the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

 

Vought's moves appear to allow him to claim the CFPB still exists, while sidelining its role by drastically curtailing its ability to supervise companies and respond to complaints.

 

CFPB employees question whether a handful of employees could credibly fulfill the dozens of statutory requirements of the agency, which include responding to millions of consumer complaints filed via web and phone lines, as well as maintaining advocacy offices for military veterans and senior citizens.

 

On Thursday, Jonathan McKernan, President Donald Trump's pick to take over at the CFPB for Vought, told lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat credited with spurring the agency's creation, that he would "fully and faithfully" enforce laws related to the CFPB's mission.

 

McKernan added that if confirmed by the Senate, he would "rightsize" the CFPB, as well as "refocus it" and "make it accountable."

 

Noting that Vought, who is also head of the Office of Management and Budget, has canceled the lease on the agency's headquarters, Sen. Jack Reed, D.-R.I., told McKernan that he was in a "very difficult position."

 

"You do not appear to have much presidential support or OMB support, and I have this sinking feeling that you're departing Liverpool on the Titanic," Reed said. "Good luck."

The U.S. dollar remained strong on Wednesday due to concerns over tariffs and tense negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, while the New Zealand dollar decreased following a significant interest rate reduction by its central bank.

 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. This marks a total reduction of 175 basis points since August as the central bank attempts to stimulate a lagging economy and address rising unemployment.

 

The kiwi currency was last down 0.3% at $0.5687 after the rate decision and subsequent comments from the bank indicating potential future cuts.

 

In the broader market, investors evaluated the recent developments in U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff measures and the uncertainty following the conclusion of initial Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which excluded Kyiv and Europe.

 

A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters this month anticipate another 50-basis-point cut in April.

 

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy asserted that no peace agreement could be made without his involvement. He postponed his trip to Saudi Arabia, originally planned for Wednesday, to March 10 to avoid legitimizing U.S.-Russia discussions.

 

Russia has toughened its stance, specifically demanding assurance that NATO will not grant membership to Kyiv.

 

The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that further discussions with Russia on resolving the war in Ukraine were agreed upon.

 

Expectations of a peace deal had driven the euro to a two-week high last week; however, the EU currency has dropped in recent days, last recorded 0.03% lower at $1.0442.

 

"The euro seems slightly unsettled by the evident differences between the U.S. and Europe over the conflict in Ukraine," commented Sean Callow, senior FX analyst at InTouch Capital Markets.

 

The dollar rose on Tuesday, buoyed by the euro's softness, yet it remains close to a two-month low of 106.56 hit on Friday despite ongoing tariff commitments.

 

Trump announced on Tuesday his intention to apply auto tariffs "in the vicinity of 25%" along with similar duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

 

"As long as Trump is perceived as unreliable regarding tariffs, substantial USD long positions will be challenged," Callow remarked.

 

Trump's administration has consistently issued tariffs and threats of tariffs in the initial month of his presidency, creating uncertainty about their domestic and international effects.

 

Investors were awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes later that day for insights into policymakers' assessments of the risks associated with a global trade war.

 

Markets have factored in approximately 35 basis points of cuts for 2025.

 

The dollar index, assessing the greenback against a collection of rival currencies, increased by 0.04% to 107.04.

 

The yen gained 0.05% to 152 per dollar. Japan's strong GDP data for October to December released on Monday, along with recent robust inflation figures, have bolstered expectations for rate hikes.

 

The likelihood of a rate hike at the Bank of Japan's July meeting is increasing, yet uncertainties about the speed and scope of continuous tightening remain.

 

The focus will be on board member Hajime Takata, who is slated to deliver remarks on Wednesday, and the release of national CPI data on Friday.

 

Sterling remained steady at $1.2613 after touching a two-month high of $1.2641 in early trading on Wednesday. An inflation report for the UK is due later on Wednesday, following Tuesday's data indicating accelerating British wage growth.

 

The Australian dollar edged down 0.07% to $0.63495 after data revealed that domestic wages increased at the slowest annual rate in more than two years during the fourth quarter.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced rates as expected on Tuesday but issued a warning regarding further easing.